It’s Nice to be Right

by Dr Swaggins

In my previous post about the upcoming Indiana primary I predicted that it would be a key state in determining the winner of the Republican nomination. Here’s a Politico article by Shane Goldmacher, with such goodies as “no state in the coming weeks of the Republican presidential contest is viewed by the campaigns as more consequential than Indiana” and this quote from some dweeb by the name of McIntosh, “There is now no state more important than Indiana for electing Cruz and keeping Trump from reaching 1,237.”

McIntosh does have some significance in the grand scheme of the election, since he’s the president of the Club for Growth Action Fund, a conservative super PAC which according to the above article is gearing up for the Battle of Indiana, and have chosen to side with Cruz.

I did a little bit of research as to who those people are and what their goals are, and it’s enough to warrant its own post. Expect to see that soon.

As for how Trump is doing in Indiana, here’s the updates: according to the Politico article I linked in the first paragraph, three independent polls have found the following results for the pivotal state of Indiana:

  1. Trump and Cruz tied at 32%.
  2. Also a tie.
  3. Trump ahead by an undisclosed amount.
  4. Here’s a fourth by Fox News pegging Trump a full eight points ahead. And this one’s the most recent.

As I stated in my previous post, Trump will win if we can get John “Golly gee” Kasich out of the way or if Trump wins Indiana. In the former case, his only remaining task is to consistently beat Ted Cruz, which is almost assured, and in the latter case the delegate math gets really hard for his opponents. Fortunately, this Tuesday is going to bring us closer to both goals.

In fact, tomorrow will look more like Trump’s coronation ceremony than anything else. Seriously, look at the latest polls. Cruz and Kasich showed their desperation recently when they decided to attempt to dogpile him and even announced it. Naturally, Trump is blasting them for having done so.

Going into the Indiana primary, voters are going to be thinking about the following recent events:

  1. Colorado is stolen in a flagrant violation of democratic principles,
  2. Cruz and Kasich openly collaborate and rub their palms like oligarchs to stop We The People’s choice candidate,
  3. They fail spectacularly at it,
  4. Trump crushes them and the gap between them for both voters and delegates widens, with two decisive and consecutive victories at New York and on Trump Tuesday,
  5. Cruz is mathematically eliminated,
  6. Kasich (the more popular of the two in the Northeast) fails to stop Trump Tuesday, and
  7. Trump sets his next targets as those devils who stole Indiana’s jobs.

To the public, Cruz and Kasich will appear (accurately) as two corrupt, incompetent, bumbling fools, just the latest in a series of idiots who Trump put through a meat grinder. When they see Cruz and Kasich go on the news and say “we’re still in this, we’ll stop Trump from reaching 1237,” they will react with nothing but disgust. Even the pundits who previously supported them might get tired of them.

Indiana voters are going to imagine Trump doing to ISIS or Carrier or the next douchebag du jour what he did to Cruz, Kasich, and all of his previous opponents. Meanwhile, the single reason that there are Republicans who don’t vote Trump- namely, fear that he isn’t electable- will dissolve once they see Trump’s electability clearly exceeding the combined (non-)electability of his rivals.

His odds in Indiana are good, and if he wins that, there will be no stopping him.

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It’s Nice to be Right

War of the Vote Sponges: the Battle of Indiana

by Dr Swaggins

For some time now we’ve known that the sole purpose of Kasich being in this race is to sponge up enough delegates from Trump to keep him from the magic number of 1237. Two points on that:

1) How dumb must Kasich voters be? Do these people really want to elect someone who does that? That’s not just a sleazy thing to do: that’s spending several months doing nothing but that one sleazy act, gathering donations for it, and doing it on national television.

2) It seems that Ted Cruz has become a delegate sponge as well, after the satisfying Trump victory in New York. In order to catch up to Donald Trump, he needs to get 286 more delegates than Trump does, which is about 39% of the remaining delegates.

The math on this one is really funny. Donald Trump has over 40% of the popular vote among Republicans now nationwide, so Cruz would need to get 79%, for a total between them of 119% of the actual delegates remaining.

Cruz catching up to Trump would require Trump’s numbers magically dropping down to 30.5% despite his considerable momentum and the well known loyalty of his supporters, and it would also require Cruz’s numbers to magically jump up to 69.5%.

And this is assuming that Kasich is smart enough to see this insane turnaround coming, and drops out early enough to avoid sponging up a single delegate from Cruz.

The odds of this are about as low as Cruz winning the election in the first round, which is impossible now. I would be less surprised if I encountered a flamboyantly gay albino midget walking his pet grey wolf through town, but then I live in the sort of place where you might see that.

For his part, Trump needs 53.2% of the remaining delegates now. A conservative estimate on his current support is 40.3%, and by conservative I mean that it leaves out polls like this one pegging him at 48%.

I think that his odds of reaching 1237 are pretty good. One week from now we have Super Tuesday 3 or 4, I don’t know or care which, and it consists of Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Now, nobody cares about Rhode Island because there’s 19 delegates and they’re awarded proportionally. Seriously, the most recent RI polls I can find are from when Rubio was in the race.

Delaware has only 16 delegates but they matter because it’s winner take all. This is the closest thing I could find to a Delaware poll. Trump scrapes up 16 delegates.

Trump is crushing his opponents in Connecticut, where 13 of the state’s 28 delegates are allocated to the winner, with the rest doled out proportionally.

Trump is winning in Maryland, where 14 of 38 are allocated to the winner in the same way.

As for the 71-delegate titan Pennsylvania, he’s gonna make us sick of winning. And he’s going to rake in 17 more extra delegates when he does so.

In total there are 172 delegates up for grabs on Tuesday and 60 of those will be won by simply winning the states, all of which he has over 40% in. This means that there are only 112 delegates that are really up for grabs, and he’ll grab at least 40% of those in addition to the 60 he grabbed by making us sick of winning. We’re talking about a conservative estimate at 105 delegates, putting him at 952, with 561 delegates remaining in total and 285 between Trump and incontestable victory.

After Super Tuesday (boring name- let’s call it Trump Tuesday), his remaining needed delegate share goes down from 53.2% to 50.8% or lower. His odds go up not only thanks to that, but also thanks to the fact that many of the people supporting Kasich will give up their Quixotic endeavor after Trump Tuesday. That’s actually a pretty big deal: if Kasich drops out, then Trump will simply have to beat Cruz in the remaining states in order to get over 50% of the remaining delegates.

Better yet, this effect keeps going. Look at the three biggest states remaining:

California, where Trump leads by nine points, allocates an extra 13 of its 172 delegates.

The closest thing to an Indiana poll is this, but I have a few reasons of my own to believe that he’ll do well there:

  1. The recent outsourcing fiasco with Carrier is going to be in the minds of Indiana voters, and he’s going to take full advantage of that.
  2. Indiana has an open primary, which Trump generally does well in.
  3. Trump won in all of the surrounding states other than Ohio.
  4. Trump is up by 9 points nationwide anyway, so Indiana will vote for him unless it’s one of the states which likes him the least.

Trump should sweep up an extra 30 of Indiana’s 57 delegates.

New Jersey, coming in third place, will give all 51 of its delegates to the winner, which will be Trump. Besides that wide lead, he has an endorsement from a recent, popular governor of that state, and if New York is Trump’s home then New Jersey is his back yard. Assuming he does as expected on Trump Tuesday and wins New Jersey, he needs only 45.9% of the remaining delegates.

Of the other seven states, three are winner take all, three are proportional, and one is hybrid. If you’re interested, I scribbled up a pastebin about them.

Assuming he wins 105 delegates next Tuesday and 51 in New Jersey, subsequently needing 45.9% of the remaining delegates, I’m going to make a few predictions:

  1. If Kasich drops out, Trump wins, because all he’d have to do is tie or beat Cruz, something he’s generally successful at. Kasich will likely stay in the race regardless of how indescribably far behind he is for this reason, but Trump Tuesday will take the wind out of his sails either way.
  2. Indiana will be the last stand of the GOP establishment. It’s Oregon and South Dakota rolled into one from a delegate standpoint, and it gives more extra delegates to the winner than California does. If he wins Indiana with 37%, he gets around 40 delegates; an Indiana win would mean that he only needs 42.8% of the delegates from then on out (New Jersey excepted).
  3.  The GOP already knows what I just told you: they can’t win without Indiana. I’m not the first person to recognize its strategic importance. Trump’s advisors have also told him this, and that’s why he’s already there, playing the outsourcing card, exactly as I predicted when I started this post yesterday night. Ads on both sides are being planned, written, possibly recorded right now. After Trump Tuesday, the Battle of Indiana will begin- if it hasn’t already started.

Cruz was mathematically eliminated yesterday, and after next Tuesday I can hope that there won’t be a single voter dumb enough to think that Kasich has a good reason to be in the race. If Trump wins Indiana, his momentum going forward will be such that a lot of the #nevertrump buffoons are just going to give up and stay home. Cruz, possibly with the help of Kasich, would have to beat him by a margin of 14.3 points in the 8 remaining states, in spite of Trump’s 9 point national lead, and in spite of the aforementioned momentum. That simply won’t happen.

If they pull another Colorado somehow or other, it’ll just piss off the voters who still actually have votes. If they send an army of smelly people, it’ll just raise his numbers: Soros tried that in Arizona, Illinois, and New York, and Trump did better than expected in all three states by 9.1 points, 2.8 points, and 7.4 points respectively.

I believe that Trump will sweep next week and that he has New Jersey in the bag. Rubio used to say that the winner of the Florida primary will be the nominee, but I’m placing my bets somewhere else.

Don’t screw this up, Indiana.

War of the Vote Sponges: the Battle of Indiana

On the Ethnic Kinship Coefficient

by Dr Swaggins

Here’s an excerpt from my upcoming rebuttal of this oddity of a piece, a collaboration with RaceRealist at the NotPoliticallyCorrect blog. In these few paragraphs I sum up some data and math relating to the finding that you’re about as similar to someone of your own race as you are to a first cousin.

Rebutting Jayman’s denial of the ethnic kinship coefficient requires an explanation of the concept of relatedness as a whole. How, for example, can I be 50% identical to my father if I’m around 65% identical to chickens? The answer is that I am not 50% identical to my father; rather, I am 50% identical to my father by comparison to the baseline level of relatedness of all living humans. If all living humans are 99.8% genetically identical then I’m 99.9% identical to my father. Jayman’s argument that two random coethnics aren’t related fails to factor this into account: a calculation of relation needs a baseline level of relatedness for comparison. So he’s correct in stating that two coethnics are not similar to one another- but only by comparison to the baseline level of relatedness of their entire population.

Since the ethnic kinship coefficient has been worked out to the equivalent of first cousins, it may be useful to frame the issue in those terms. If I am 12.5% identical to my first cousin by comparison to any other coethnic, it is because there is an eighth of my genome that I share with my cousin due to our common descent. Specifically, our mutual descent from our mutual grandparents gives us a specific combination of genes that nobody else is likely to have. 12.5% of my genome is 100% identical to his alleles of the same genes and the other 87.5% is as similar to his as it is to any other coethnic, but taken as an average across my entire genome, any given allele is 12.5% more likely to be shared with him than it is everyone else in our race.

The ethnic kinship coefficient works in an uncannily similar way. Instead of inheriting those 12.5% identical genes from recent common ancestors, the two coethnics inherit the same genes due to the fact that people of their race usually have those genes (think melanin, keratin, microcephalin, EDAR, HERC2, or any other gene for which the frequency of alleles differs over population). In spite of that difference in the origin of ethnic vs familial similarity, the mathematics are shockingly similar: according to Henry Harpending in his review paper Kinship and Population Subdivision, “Many studies agree that Fst [genetic distance between populations] in world samples of human populations is between ten and fifteen percent,” with “a conservative general figure” being 12.5%. What’s more, Fst “is computed for each allele at each locus, then averaged over all loci.” A statistically average gene is 12.5% more likely to be shared with a first cousin than with a coethnic and 12.5% more likely to be shared with a coethnic than with anyone else.

One such study finds, for example, that a Frenchman is 12% identical to another Frenchman if your baseline for comparison is the genetic similarity between the French and Japanese.

This is the inevitable implication of the central tenet of HBD: that the various races of the world are genetically different from one another. It is also the inevitable implication of Lewontin’s famous finding that 15% of all human genetic variation is racial; if it were 100% then all coethnics would be identical and it were 0% then race wouldn’t exist at all. If it were 15%, though, then that 15% would be composed of genes whose alleles vary in frequency across populations; these are genes you share with coethnics much more often than you share with anyone else. If you’re more likely to share a lot of genes with coethnics than you are with anyone else, then you’re more genetically similar to coethnics than you are anyone else. When they sequence the genes of people of different races and compute the odds of similarity locus for locus, you’re much more likely to share some genes (ABCC11, MC1R, etc) with coethnics than you are others, but taken as an average across the entire genome, it’s 10-15%. Apply those odds to the 20,000 or so genes in the human genome and the result will be consistent with the data that members of a given race are 10-15% identical by comparison to members of other races.

Here’s a thought: since you’re actually 56.25% identical to your kids, assuming they’re of the same race, I should go back and revise my numbers from Fecundity is Immortality.

Edit: Upon studying the Fixation Index more, I’ve been reminded of the fact that Fst and similar values are calculated via odds of heterozygosity, which reaches its maximum at 0.5 in a population assuming that there are two alleles in play. Moreover, assuming that conditions for most genes fall within Hardy-Weinberg expectations, we find 50% of a population’s variation within each of its individuals due to the diploid nature of the human genome. This means that Fst values, like kinship coefficients in general, will be half of the actual relatedness (or lack thereof) between individuals. I may make a post about this later; in the meantime I leave you with the appendix of this Frank Salter paper, written by Henry Harpending himself.

On the Ethnic Kinship Coefficient

Argumentum Ad Genitalium: the Logical Fallacy of the Negro

by Dr Swaggins

I’ve been working with RaceRealist over at the Not Politically Correct blog on a refutation to Jayman’s odd denial of EGI, and he sent me an amusing (and telling) argument made by Jayman on the subject of miscegenation. From Jayman’s article linked above:

“One feature of these individuals is a visceral opposition to ‘race mixing’ (ignoring the fact that such gave us the modern races we see today). Well to those guys, I say I’ve been busy spreading my Black (and other) genes into the White gene pool here in Maine.”

Okay, first off, just because new races have been created by admixture does not mean that they should be. Secondly, if we accept his point that mixing races creates new ones, then that means that race mixing could lead to an entire population of IQ 93 mulattoes. One smart Black guy wandering up to Maine- and I’ve heard that Jayman is the only Black man to have made it that far North- and knocking boots with the locals isn’t going to open a hole to the fourth dimension or something, but I have to imagine that Maine would cease to be such an abundantly pleasant place if 100,000 Blacks did that.

My favorite part of this article, though, and by a wide margin, is the fact that he’s essentially bragging about having sex with his wife in an ill conceived attempt to irritate us racists. You would not believe the number of times Black men come onto race realist forums bragging about fornicating with White women, or of course, claiming that they have sex with your daughter/mother/girlfriend etc. To what end, I have absolutely no idea. What’s the argument? That Black men are primal, meaty, sexual beasts? Even if that were true, it wouldn’t make them capable of doing all the neat stuff that White people do (constitutions, skyscrapers, space programs, you know how it is). In this case in particular, Jayman bringing up his procreation with a White women isn’t an argument of any kind against EGI; on the contrary, bringing it up just shows his bias.

Anyway, the sheer ubiquity of this kind of statement during debates with Black men is comparable to Godwin’s Law, if not exceeding it. Even Jayman, an intelligent guy, will eventually find himself mentioning what he does with his genitals, as if the odds of a Black man bragging about his sex with White women asymptotically approach 100% as the conversation goes on.

Of all the fallacious arguments I’ve ever seen, every one of them was made either out of ignorance or sophistry, right up until this one. I don’t even know what to say about this one. “Muh dik, therefore I am?” The icing on the cake is that none of these Black men seem to be aware of the fact that nearly every one of their kinsmen to talk to us eventually said basically that same thing, to the point where we have jokes about it.

Here’s to hoping that the Argumentum Ad Genitalium continues to be an endless source of entertainment.

Argumentum Ad Genitalium: the Logical Fallacy of the Negro